Observatory on 2019 Government Spending and Revenue - "Sustainability of pension spending as a part of an alternative development scenario"
This study on the medium/long-term trends of pension spending, including references to other welfare functions, stems from the idea that it is essential to analyse the projections for the next few decades drawn up by national and EU bodies, by rigorously examining the scenarios regarding population trends, employment, productivity and growth, in order to be able to assess their impact and the consequences that would result from a different possible development for our country. This analysis is very important for our country, since the opinions of international bodies and in particular, those of the European Union that have a profound impact on the evaluation of our economy depend on these forecasts.
From mid-2014 to the first half of 2018, thanks to the increase in both foreign and domestic demand, Italy has experienced a phase of positive growth, after many years of crisis, showing a recovery in the economy supported by positive data on employment and, as far as the central theme of this study is concerned, also with respect to the pension spending sustainability. Despite the good results, warnings from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the OECD, which have repeatedly feared unsustainable situations in the medium and long term, have not been lacking with regard to public accounts and especially pensions. While such concerns may be justifiable for some major issues, such as excessive public debt, very high and inefficient welfare spending and low employment rates, the same level of concern about pension spending may not be justified.
That's why this Report aims to provide an (alternative) outlook over at least five decades ahead to describe the possible evolution of the impact of public pension spending on future resources.
Previdenza di base - regime generale, Lavoro, Welfare altro